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Christopher Wilde
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Friday, April 18, 2008

A Note to Investors

World food prices are up, the dollar is down, most commodity indexes are up, dramatically. I'm hearing about it, but I'm not an investor; not an insider.  That means now is not the time to to try and get in and guess when to pull out.

 

Now is the time to look at who (what companies and producers) can bend and shift to take advantage of the rising commodities.  Which metal producers can increase capacity?  What is the price point at which it becomes favorable for US farms to switch crops, which will? 

 

In short, now is not the time to try and ride the crisis to the top, but to plan to ride the short side down.  I think this is true for food prices.  They may rise, and if there is a natural disaster in the food market next year prices will be higher, but the oil rise is artificial and that is affecting food prices.  The worse the news gets, the more public the crisis appears to be the better to gauge the apex of the rise.  I expect that we will see this crisis through to the next year when then the new President has taken the country through the Christmas shopping season.

If I had money to invest I'd be looking for the causes that will bring prices down.  And I would be looking to invest in those companies that will be bringing them down.

 

Just a little prediction.

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